Public Lecture by the 2003 Nobel Laureate in Economics
Professor Clive Granger, winner of the 2003 Nobel Prize in Economics, is to present
a public lecture at Caulfield on September 12, 2006. Professor Granger is a Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters, the
American Economic Association, and the Econometric Society, and is currently Research Professor with
the Department of Economics, University of California
San Diego. A brief precis of the lecture follows.
Clive Granger – Building Policy Models for the Amazon Rain Forest
The Amazon rain forest is the largest in the world and is of considerable
importance to global warming issues and is of economic importance to Brazil;
however, it is being deforested at a rapid rate. This paper will discuss how
to build an econometric model linking important variables measuring the forest
with socio-economic, physical, and policy variables using a panel data set
of mixed quality. The quality of the land under the forest is of particular
importance. The problem of how to effectively introduce policy variables will
be given particular consideration. Results from an initial study will be included
but recent considerations suggest that a different model is required.
