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Working Papers 1999 – Abstracts

13/99 Bayesian Trace Statistics for the Reduced Rank Regression Model Rodney W. Strachan and Brett Inder: Estimation of the reduced rank regression model requires restrictions be imposed upon the model. Two forms of restrictions are commonly used. Earlier Bayesian work relied on the triangular method of identification which imposes an a priori ordering on the variables in the system, however, incorrect ordering of the variables can result in model misspecification. Bayesian estimation of the reduced rank regression model without ordering restrictions was presented in Strachan (1998) and follows the classical approach of Anderson (1951) and Johansen (1998). This method of estimation avoids placing restrictions on the space spanned by the reduced rank relations and simplifies testing of restrictions on that space. In this paper, a method for estimating approximate marginal likelihoods and Bayes factors is presented for this model, using Laplace approximations for integrals. These Bayes factors algebraically resemble the Johansen trace statistic (1995), hence the title. We consider the model with rank r and no restrictions on the reduced rank relations.
Keywords: Reduced rank regressions mode, error correction model, marginal likelihoods, Bayes factors, Bayesian analysis

14/99 Understanding the Kalman Filter: An Object Oriented Programming Perspective Ralph D. Snyder and Catherine S. Forbes: The basic ideals underlying the Kalman filter are outlined in this paper without direct recourse to the complex formulae normally associated with this method. The novel feature of the paper is its reliance on a new algebraic system based on the first two moments of the multivariate normal distribution. The resulting framework lends itself to an object-oriented implementation on computing machines and so many of the ideas are presented in these terms. The paper provides yet another perspective of Kalman filtering, one that many should find relatively easy to understand.
Keywords: Time series analysis, forecasting, Kalman filter, dynamic linear statistical models, object oriented programming