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Business and Economic Forecasting Unit – Working Papers

 
2007        
7 Pim Ouwehand, Rob J. Hyndman, Ton G. de Kok and Karel H. van Donselaar A state space model for exponential smoothing with group seasonality [abstract] [PDF]
6 Rob J. Hyndman and Yeasmin Khandakar Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R [abstract] [PDF]
4 Ralph D. Snyder, Gael M. Martin, Phillip Gould and Paul D. Feigin An Assessment of Alternative State Space Models for Count Time Series [abstract] [PDF]
3 Ashton de Silva, Rob J. Hyndman and Ralph D. Snyder The vector innovation structural time series framework: a simple approach to multivariate forecasting [abstract] [PDF]
2006        
19 George Athanasopoulos and Rob J Hyndman Modelling and forecasting Australian domestic tourism [abstract] [PDF]
16 Ralph D. Snyder and Anne B. Koehler Incorporating a Tracking Signal into State Space Models for Exponential Smoothing [abstract] [PDF]
14 Rob J. Hyndman and Heather Booth Stochastic population forecasts using Functional data models for mortality, Fertility and migration [abstract] [PDF]
13 Heather Booth, Rob J. Hyndman, Leonie Tickle and Piet de Jong Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: A multi-country comparison of variants and extensions [abstract] [PDF]
4 George Athanasopoulos and Farshid Vahid VARMA versus VAR for Macroeconomic Forecasting [abstract] [PDF]
3 Rob J Hyndman and Muhammad Akram Some Nonlinear Exponential Smoothing Models are Unstable [abstract] [PDF]
2005        
24 J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods [abstract] [PDF]
16 D. S. Poskitt Autoregressive Approximation in Nonstandard Situations: The Non-Invertible and Fractionally Integrated Cases [abstract] [PDF]
15 Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén, João Victor Issler and George Athanasopoulos Forecasting Accuracy and Estimation Uncertainty Using VAR Models with Short- and Long-Term Economic Restrictions: A Monte-Carlo Study. [abstract] [PDF]
13 Rob J. Hyndman and Anne B. Koehler Another Look at Measures of Forecast Accuracy [abstract] [PDF]
12 Jan G. De Gooijer and Rob J. Hyndman 25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review [abstract] [PDF]
7 J. Keith Ord, Ralph D. Snyder, Anne B. Koehler, Rob J. Hyndman and Mark Leeds Time Series Forecasting: The Case for the Single Source Error State Space [abstract] [PDF]
6 Baki Billah, Maxwell L. King, Raph D. Snyder and Anne B. Koehler Exponential Exponential Smoothing Model Selection for Forecasting [abstract] [PDF]
5 Ralph D. Snyder A Pedant's Approach to Exponential Smoothing [abstract] [PDF]
3 Bircan Erbas, Rob J. Hyndman and Dorota M. Gertig Forecasting age-specific breast cancer mortality using functional data models [abstract] [PDF]
2 Rob J. Hyndman and Md Shahid Ullah Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach [abstract] [PDF]
1 Denny Meyer and Rob J. Hyndman Rating Forecasts for Television Programs [abstract] [PDF]
2004        
28 Phillip Gould, Anne B. Koehler, Farshid Vahid-Araghi, Ralph D. Snyder, J. Keith Ord and Rob J. Hyndman Forecasting Time-Series with Correlated Seasonality [abstract] [PDF]
27 Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong Value of expertise for forecasting decisions in conflicts [abstract] [PDF]
26 Xibin Zhang and Maxwell L. King Box-Cox Stochastic Volatility Models with Heavy-Tails and Correlated Errors [abstract] [PDF]
22 Heather M. Anderson and Chin Nam Low Random Walk Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models [abstract] [PDF]
21 Heather M. Anderson, Chin Nam Low and Ralph Snyder Single Source of Error State Space Approach to the Beveridge Nelson Decomposition [abstract] [PDF]
20 D.S. Poskitt On the identification and estimation of partially nonstationary ARMAX systems [abstract] [PDF]
18 Kesten C. Green Further evidence on game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts [abstract] [PDF]
17 Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong Structured analogies for forecasting [abstract] [PDF]
15 Ralph D. Snyder Exponential Smoothing: A Prediction Error Decomposition Principle [abstract] [PDF]
12 D.S. Poskitt Some Results on the Identification and Estimation of Vector ARMAX Processes [abstract] [PDF]
2003        
4 Elizabeth A. Majaraj Using Evolutionary Spectra to Forecast Time Series [abstract] [PDF]
3 Rob J. Hyndman, Muhammad Akram and Blyth Archibald Invertibility Conditions for Exponential Smoothing Models [abstract] [PDF]
2 Md B. Billah, Rob J. Hyndman and A. B. Koehler Empirical Information Criteria for Time Series Forecasting Model Selection [abstract] [PDF]
1 Lydia Shenstone and Rob J. Hyndman Stochastic models underlying Croston's method for intermittent demand forecasting [abstract] [PDF]
2002        
21 Heather M. Anderson Choosing Lag Lengths in Nonlinear Dynamic Models [abstract] [PDF]
14 Ralph D. Snyder and Catherine S. Forbes Reconstructing the Kalman Filter for Stationary and Non Stationary Time Series [abstract] [PDF]
10 Rob J Hyndman, Maxwell L King, Ivet Pitrun and Baki Billah Local Linear Forecasts Using Cubic Smoothing Splines [abstract] [PDF]
5 Roland G. Shami and Catherine S. Forbes Non-linear Modelling of the Australian Business Cycle using a Leading Indicator [abstract] [PDF]
3 Ralph D. Snyder, Anne B. Koehler, Rob J. Hyndman and J. Keith Ord Exponential Smoothing for Inventory Control: Means and Variances of Lead-Time Demand [abstract] [PDF]
2001        
11 Rob J Hyndman, Anne B Koehler, J Keith Ord and Ralph D Snyder Prediction Intervals for Exponential Smoothing State Space Models [abstract] [PDF]
7 George Athanasopoulos, Heather M. Anderson, and Farshid Vahid Capturing the Shape of Business Cycles with Nonlinear Autoregressive Leading Indicator Models [abstract] [PDF]
5 Rob J. Hyndman and Baki Billah Unmasking the Theta Method [abstract] [PDF]
2 Farshid Vahid and João Victor Issler The Importance of Common Cyclical Features in VAR Analysis: A Monte-Carlo Study [abstract] [PDF]
1 Elizabeth Ann Maharaj Comparison of Non-Stationary Time Series in the Frequency Domain [abstract] [PDF]
2000        
10 Roland G. Sharmi and Catherine S. Forbes A Structural Time Series Model with Markov Switching [abstract] [PDF]
9 Rob J. Hyndman, Anne B. Koehler, Ralph D. Snyder and Simone Grose A State Space Framework for Automatic Forecasting Using Exponential Smoothing Methods [abstract] [PDF]
7 Catherine S. Forbes, Ralph D. Snyder and Roland G. Shami Bayesian Exponential Smoothing [abstract] [PDF]
4 Catherine S. Forbes and Paul Kofman Bayesian Soft Target Zones [abstract] [PDF]
3 Heather M. Anderson and Farshid Vahid Predicting the Probability of a Recession with Nonlinear Autoregressive Leading Indicator Models [abstract] [PDF]
1999        
14 Ralph D. Snyder and Catherine S. Forbes Understanding the Kalman Filter: An Object Oriented Programming Perspective [abstract] [PDF]
11 Elizabeth Ann Maharaj A Test For The Difference Parameter Of The ARFIMA Model Using The Moving Blocks Bootstrap [abstract] [PDF]
10 Ralph D. Snyder, Anne Koehler and Keith Ord Forecasting for Inventory Control with Exponential Smoothing [abstract] [PDF]
9 Elizabeth A. Maharaj and Brett Inder Forecasting Time Series From Clusters [abstract] [PDF]
7 Ralph D. Snyder Forecasting Sales of Slow and Fast Moving Inventories [abstract] [PDF]
4 Alan McLean The Predictive Approach To Teaching Statistics [abstract] Journal of Statistics Education, vol. 8, no.3
2 Rob J. Hyndman and Gary K.Grunwald Generalized Additive Modelling Of Mixed Distribution Markov Models With Application To Melbourne's Rainfall [abstract] Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, vol. 42, no. 2
1 Anne B. Koehler, Ralph D. Snyder and J. Keith Ord Forecasting Models And Prediction Intervals For The Multiplicative Holt-Winters Method [abstract] [PDF]
1998        
18 Merran Evans and Alan Farley Institutional Characteristics And The Relationship Between Students? First-Year University And Final-Year Secondary School Academic Performance [abstract] [PDF]
17 Rob J. Hyndman and Qiwei Yao Nonparametric Estimation And Symmetry Tests For Conditional Density Functions [abstract] [PDF]
16 David M.Bashtannyk and Rob J. Hyndman Bandwidth Selection For Kernel Conditional Density Estimation [abstract]  
13 Ralph D. Snyder, Anne B. Koehler and J. Keith Ord Lead Time Demand For Simple Exponential Smoothing [abstract]  
7 Michael Smith and Robert Kohn Nonparametric seemingly unrelated regression [abstract]  
3 Roland G. Shami and Ralph D. Snyder Exponential smoothing methods of forecasting and general ARMA time series representations [abstract]  
2 Michael Smith, Paul Yau, Thomas Shively and Robert Kohn Estimating long-term trends in tropospheric ozone levels [abstract]  
1997        
14 Jonathan J. Oliver and Catherine S. Forbes Bayesian approaches to segmenting a simple time series    
13 Michael Smith, Sharat K. Mathur and Robert Kohn Bayesian semiparametric regression: An exposition and application to print advertising data    
12 Ann Maharaj The comparison of two or more stationary time series    
11 Ann Maharaj Comparison and classification of stationary multivariate time series    
10 Roland G. Shami and Ralph D. Snyder Exponential smoothing of seasonal data: A comparison    
9 Brett Inder and Ralph Snyder Trend stability and structural change: An extension to the M1 forecasting competition    
8 R.D. Snyder, J.K. Ord & A.B. Koehler Prediction intervals for ARIMA models    
1996        
19 Michael Smith, Chi-Ming Wong & Robert Kohn Additive nonparametric regression with autocorrelated errors    
11 Ralph D. Snyder & Simone Grose Business forecasting with exponential smoothing: Computation of prediction intervals    
1 Grant R. Saligari & Ralph D. Snyder Trends, lead times and forecasting    
1995        
14 Martin Martens, Paul Kofman & Ton C.F. Vorst A threshold error correction model for intraday futures and index returns    
4 J.K. Ord, A.B. Koehler & R.D. Snyder Estimation and prediction for a class of dynamic nonlinear statistical models